Over the last few weeks, Crude Oil has been meandering sideways since reversing only a few ticks from my target near $62.25 called somewhat ominously in this set of real time tweets on May 6th:
Beware the blue line… pic.twitter.com/ldBpfF8xes
— Duncan Parker (@MinyanDP) May 6, 2015
…and shortly thereafter:
@MinyanDP Boom. (Still possibility of 64 though). Update to follow. pic.twitter.com/ANxRJcGvgH — Duncan Parker (@MinyanDP) May 6, 2015
Now we’re getting close to the target projection for Daily Wave 4 sent in this tweet on May 13th:
@MinyanDP I’m expecting the move down to 54.5 — 57.5 (DW4) to begin today in CL before DW5 rip to 71.15 pic.twitter.com/OTOfP5cUWP
— Duncan Parker (@MinyanDP) May 13, 2015
Whether skill or (more likely) dumb luck, May 13th marked the lower high in Crude and has since worked its way straight to target ever since with CLM5 achieving a low print of $57.08 this afternoon before today’s contract expiration. The fact that the $64 handle (1.618% extension of Wave A or 1) was not tested before Wave 4 parameters were met likely means this is a 5 Wave structure and not the ABC (3 Wave) structure I had feared could emerge due to the fact this is only a corrective Wave 4 on Weekly and Monthly charts. Daily charts like CL (which had achieved a 5W structure) often have a 3 Wave ABC correction before continuing in the direction of the larger trend, so there was legitimate concern the sharp rally could be nearing an end. As it stands, this is low enough for Daily Wave 4 to be considered “in”, but I’d like to see one more lower low hold this week in the 54.00 – 55.70 zone on a positive hourly RSI divergence to initiate another long position aiming for an ultimate target of $71.15 by early/mid June — Crude’s typical seasonal peak. However, there’s always the danger that should $52 be violated, the structure could still be ABC. So, below there I’m wrong — stops should be placed accordingly.
Although hourly and daily wave counts synced for 1 & 2, hourly waves 3, 4 & 5 were all observed as part of the larger daily wave 3 structure. Wave 3 should never be the shortest wave which could be a clue in the hourly count. Wave 3 is usually the longest, but hourly wave 3 came in only a few ticks from achieving 100% of W1. If hourly wave 5 had achieved the $64 handle at 1.618% of W1/Alt A, it would have busted the rule for Wave 3 never being shortest and therefore meant the structure was ABC, not 5w, and a hidden red flag for unaware swing traders on daily time frames. It’s not an “all clear” signal just yet, but it does give me more confidence that the structure appears to be healthy.
Thanks for reading and I’ll do my best to follow up with entry opportunities in the coming days. Good luck out there!